Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-14 34.422330 37.058927 39.936548 43.336554 47.279072 51.751468 57.275051
2025-09-21 30.181602 33.563313 37.481095 42.438635 48.673407 56.447847 67.220313
2025-09-28 27.448342 31.132665 35.562782 41.425368 49.222860 59.646912 75.482800
2025-10-05 26.471266 30.591685 35.727039 42.833995 52.856061 67.326832 91.872128
2025-10-12 25.501758 29.912473 35.570861 43.699218 55.759548 74.452198 109.862159
2025-10-19 24.535929 29.125755 35.154263 44.089010 57.944268 80.856672 129.304482
2025-10-26 23.568532 28.246826 34.509892 44.035558 59.375293 86.258093 149.517298
2025-11-02 22.498500 27.150707 33.465510 43.254802 59.475298 89.228298 165.884081
2025-11-09 21.500932 26.091269 32.392309 42.314635 59.153662 91.285549 181.312803
2025-11-16 20.681180 25.230844 31.544112 41.639486 59.185702 94.053273 201.171082
2025-11-23 19.938317 24.439004 30.744419 40.966535 59.122518 96.598822 222.893096
2025-11-30 19.693830 24.332466 30.938389 41.905519 62.148532 106.969192 289.659875
2025-12-07 19.119861 23.743733 30.398233 41.618800 62.868775 112.282498 346.653182
2025-12-14 18.450236 22.990215 29.570289 40.782817 62.397313 114.442777 392.700218
2025-12-21 17.803356 22.243838 28.715835 39.837309 61.585565 115.486751 436.607048
2025-12-28 17.729203 22.327527 29.141867 41.151452 65.693317 132.434576 741.610538
2026-01-04 17.542114 22.233059 29.278776 41.957520 68.853959 148.428006 1432.244686
2026-01-11 17.272254 22.001561 29.181317 42.320386 71.070053 162.664416 3695.878577
2026-01-18 16.935741 21.655355 28.878990 42.270637 72.294961 173.991175 31934.290762
2026-01-25 16.486264 21.121821 28.246540 41.543595 71.738996 177.477264 NaN
2026-02-01 16.031453 20.566954 27.558170 40.667193 70.704191 178.435068 NaN
2026-02-08 15.646165 20.108125 27.012126 40.037212 70.238302 182.114167 NaN
2026-02-15 15.279812 19.668475 26.482308 39.408762 69.707540 185.383868 NaN